The threat of an escalation in the war between Israel and Hamas has been the dominant topic in the international media for days, and the devastating rocket strike on a hospital in Gaza City last week has only increased that risk.
"Based on my meetings and the dynamics I observe on the ground, I would say the following: the risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous," UN Mideast envoy Tor Wennesland told the UN Security Council in New York last week.
The danger of a two-front war
One country is at the top of the list in most of the feared escalation scenarios: Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon, home to the radical Shia Hezbollah political party and military group, which is supported by Hamas and even more so by Iran.
Hezbollah aims for the destruction of Israel and is classified as a terrorist organization in many Western countries, including the US and Germany. Militarily, it is also much more powerful than Hamas, with experts estimating that it has a current weapons stockpile of at least 100,000 rockets. In recent weeks, Israeli soldiers are said to have already killed armed fighters who advanced as far as Israel in repeated skirmishes along the border.
Hezbollah, a central political force in Lebanon's complex power structure, declared a "day of rage" in the wake of the hospital tragedy but has so far avoided a military escalation. Many observers say that Hezbollah fighters could quickly find themselves challenged if the Israeli offensive in Gaza expands and parts of the territory are even occupied by Israel.
